US midterms 2026: a record early vote and the races that could decide Congress
More than 52 million Americans have voted early ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterms, a record. What is at stake, and what the numbers cannot tell us yet.
The essentials: More than 52 million Americans had already voted by November 1, 2026, according to NBC News and the data firm TargetSmart, two days before the midterm elections of Tuesday, November 3. That is above the previous midterm record of 45.9 million, set in 2022. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, and Republicans are defending majorities in both chambers.
How big is the early vote?
The totals depend on the tracker and the date, and they should not be mixed.
| Tracker | Votes cast | Date |
|---|---|---|
| NBC News / TargetSmart | 52.2 million (29 million in person, 23.2 million by mail) | Updated Nov. 1 |
| University of Florida Election Lab, via Newsweek | 49.6 million | Evening of Oct. 30 |
| AP | More than 43 million, nearly 10 million above 2022 | Oct. 30 report |
The surge is sharpest in states with competitive races. AP compared each state with the same point four years ago:
| State | Change on 2022 |
|---|---|
| South Carolina | +83% |
| Texas | +50% (6.3 million against 4.2 million) |
| Maine | +44% |
| Kansas | +34% |
| Michigan | +32% |
Source: AP, via PBS NewsHour. Texas figures as of October 28.
Does the early vote show who is winning?
No. It shows who has turned out, not who they backed. According to the University of Florida data cited by Newsweek, 43% of early voters were registered Democrats and 32% were Republicans, with 25% unaffiliated or from smaller parties. Only 27 states track early voting by party registration, Newsweek notes, so those shares do not cover the whole country.
AP makes the same point about its own party count: the figures “do not account for all early voters nationwide or indicate which candidates received their votes.” NBC’s split, 46% Democrats to 35% Republicans, rests partly on a statistical model.
Donald Trump has called early voting “ridiculous”, Newsweek reports, while Democratic organisers are pushing supporters to use it. A Democratic lead in early ballots therefore does not settle what happens on Tuesday.
What is at stake in Congress?
Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, because a 50-50 split would be broken by the Republican vice president, Action Network explains. Of the 35 seats up this year, including two special elections, 22 are held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats, according to Le Grand Continent.
In the House, 218 seats make a majority, and Republicans hold a narrow one. The Cook Political Report’s October 23 ratings put Democrats ahead in 218 seats and Republicans in 198, with 17 toss-ups, and projected a Democratic gain of 12 to 22 seats, Action Network reports.
Which races could decide the Senate?
Cook rates seven Senate seats as toss-ups. Six are held by Republicans; Michigan is the exception.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | Peltola 49.5, Sullivan 47.3 |
| Iowa | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Hinson 46.0, Turek 45.9 |
| Maine | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | Jackson 48.8, Collins 47.2 |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | El-Sayed 48.1, Rogers 45.5 |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | Brown 47.1, Husted 44.7 |
| Texas | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | Talarico 48.5, Paxton 46.3 |
RealClearPolling averages, as reported by Action Network. Most leads are within a few points.
The seventh is Kansas, where Republican Roger Marshall faces Adam Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor. Hamilton could become the state’s first Democratic senator since 1932, Le Grand Continent notes. The Texas race, where a Fox News poll has the two candidates tied at 49%, is covered in detail here.
What do the national polls say?
An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released on October 27 gave Democrats 52% and Republicans 44% among likely voters on the question of which party’s candidate they would back. The RealClearPolling average shows a Democratic lead of 8.2 points, according to Newsweek.
Trump’s approval stood at 38.4%, against 60.1% disapproval, in the RealClearPolling average of surveys from October 9 to 26. Le Grand Continent links the expected Republican losses to his unpopularity, political polarisation and the cost of living, fuel in particular.
National leads do not translate directly into seats, though. As Action Network points out, “the House is decided district by district”.
This article was prepared with the help of AI tools from the sources listed above, then reviewed by our editors before publication. Read our editorial policy
