Texas Senate race: Talarico and Paxton neck and neck as early voting ends

The essentials: Early voting in Texas ends on Friday, October 30, 2026, ahead of the general election on Tuesday, November 3. The race for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican John Cornyn is one of the closest in the country: the latest polls put Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton within a few points of each other, inside the margin of error. A Democrat has not won statewide office in Texas for more than 30 years.

Who are the candidates?

Ken Paxton is the Republican attorney general of Texas. He won the party’s nomination after a primary runoff against the sitting senator, John Cornyn, this spring. In early May, a University of Houston poll of likely Republican runoff voters had Paxton at 48% and Cornyn at 45%, Houston Public Media reported.

James Talarico is a Democratic member of the Texas House of Representatives. The Libertarian candidate, Ted Brown, is also on the ballot.

The winner will take the seat currently held by Cornyn, FOX Local notes.

What do the latest polls say?

Poll	Dates	Sample	Margin of error	Talarico	Paxton	Brown
FOX News	Oct. 15–19	1,398 likely voters	±2.5 pts	49%	49%	—
Texas Public Opinion Research	Oct. 15–18	969 likely voters	±3.9 pts	51%	47%	2%
University of Houston (Hobby School)	Oct. 10–14	2,000 likely voters	±2.19 pts	48%	46%	3%

Sources: FOX 7 Austin, University of Houston.

All three polls show a gap smaller than their margin of error. “Polls have shown the race is in a statistical tie,” FOX Local writes in its poll tracker.

The FOX News poll shows Talarico slipping slightly: he was at 51% in the network’s September poll, while Paxton’s share has not moved. Talarico is better liked, though: 49% of respondents have a favorable opinion of him, against 41% for Paxton, FOX 7 Austin reports.

Which voters could decide the race?

Independents lean clearly toward the Democrat. Talarico leads Paxton by 60% to 32% among them in the University of Houston poll, and by 66% to 28% in the Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) survey. Paxton dominates in rural areas, by 65% to 27%, according to the Hobby School.

The Latino vote is split. “But the Latino vote is more nuanced, trending toward Democrats but still offering sizeable GOP support,” said political scientist Mark P. Jones, who worked on the University of Houston survey. TPOR also found that men have moved from Talarico toward Paxton since September.

On issues, voters in the TPOR poll trust Talarico more than Paxton on the cost of living (51% to 43%) and, more narrowly, on artificial intelligence and data centers (47% to 43%).

What about the governor’s race?

Republican Governor Greg Abbott, who is seeking a fourth term, leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa: 52% to 47% in the FOX News poll and 49% to 46% in the University of Houston poll.

Some voters plan to split their ticket. According to FOX News, 7% of Talarico supporters intend to vote for Abbott, while 2% of Paxton supporters back Hinojosa. Texas abolished straight-ticket voting in 2017, so voters must choose a candidate in each race.

Why is this race being watched so closely?

Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide in a generation. “But it has been more than 30 years since a Democrat was elected to statewide office in Texas,” noted Renée Cross, executive director of the Hobby School. A Talarico win would end that streak and take a Senate seat from the Republicans.

For Republicans, the polls show the seat is not safe despite the state’s history. In the other statewide races, from lieutenant governor to railroad commissioner, the University of Houston poll shows Republican candidates ahead.

What happens next?

Early voting ran from October 19 to October 30. Polls open at 7 a.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, and polling locations vary by county. With the race this close, the result could depend on who turns out. “Turnout will be key in determining the outcome of these close races,” Cross said.