US midterms 2026: what is at stake on Election Day and when results will come
Americans vote on November 3, 2026 for all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governors. Poll closing times, key races and when control may be known.
The essentials: Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, in midterm elections that will decide control of Congress for the last two years of Donald Trump’s term. All 435 House seats, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships are on the ballot, according to Al Jazeera. Republicans hold both chambers by narrow margins, and some results may take days, or even weeks, to settle.
What is on the ballot?
The Senate contest includes 33 regular races and two special elections, in Florida and Ohio, to fill the rest of the terms once held by Marco Rubio and JD Vance, Al Jazeera notes. About 210 million Americans are registered to vote. Voters will also decide 145 statewide ballot measures, on subjects such as abortion, voter ID and taxes, Fox News reports.
| Chamber | Current balance | What Democrats need |
|---|---|---|
| House (435 seats, 218 for a majority) | 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, 1 independent who sits with Republicans, 2 vacancies | A net gain of 3 seats |
| Senate (100 seats) | 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats (including 2 independents) | A net gain of 4 seats |
Source: Al Jazeera, Political.org.
Democrats need four Senate seats, not three, because Vice President JD Vance would break a 50-50 tie in the Republicans’ favour. Of the 35 seats up this year, Republicans are defending 22 and Democrats 13.
Who is expected to win?
Forecasts lean towards Democrats in the House and are split on the Senate. On October 27, the Decision Desk HQ model gave Democrats an 80% chance of winning the House and 57% for the Senate, Political.org reports. The final Fox News Power Rankings rated the Senate a toss-up.
History favours the opposition: since 1946, the president’s party has lost an average of 26.5 House seats in midterms, political scientist Todd Belt of George Washington University told Al Jazeera. He expects Democrats to gain about 15 House seats, despite Republican redistricting that he says gives the party an edge in nine additional districts.
Several Senate races are rated close, including:
- Georgia: Democrat Jon Ossoff against Republican Mike Collins.
- North Carolina (open seat): Democrat Roy Cooper against Republican Michael Whatley.
- Maine: Republican Susan Collins against Democrat Troy Jackson, who replaced Graham Platner after he withdrew in July.
- Michigan (open seat): Democrat Abdul El-Sayed against Republican Mike Rogers.
- New Hampshire (open seat): Democrat Chris Pappas against Republican John Sununu.
Fox News also lists Alaska, Iowa, South Carolina and Texas among the Republican seats rated toss-ups. Our earlier pieces cover the record early vote and the Texas Senate race.
When do the polls close?
The first polls close at 6pm Eastern Time in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. The last ones close at 1am ET on Wednesday in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. Clocks went back in the US on November 1, so Eastern Time is five hours behind GMT.
| Time (ET) | Time (GMT) | Where polls close |
|---|---|---|
| 6pm | 11pm | Parts of Indiana and Kentucky |
| 7pm | Midnight | Georgia, Virginia, Vermont, South Carolina, parts of New Hampshire, rest of Indiana and Kentucky |
| 7:30pm | 00:30 | North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia |
| 8pm | 1am | Pennsylvania, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, most of Michigan and Texas, among others |
| 10pm to 11pm | 3am to 4am | Idaho, parts of Oregon, California and Washington |
| Midnight to 1am | 5am to 6am | Most of Alaska, then the last Aleutian Islands polling place |
Source: Political.org. Some states close at different times by county or time zone.
Political.org points to North Carolina and Ohio at 7:30pm ET, and Georgia and South Carolina at 7pm, as early signals for the Senate.
When will we know who controls Congress?
Possibly not on election night. Some races are called within minutes of polls closing, but close contests in states that count mail ballots for days can take a week or more, Political.org writes. In 2022, the House majority was only called on November 16, eight days after the vote. In Georgia, if no Senate candidate wins a majority, a run-off will be held on December 1, Al Jazeera notes.
Early counts can also mislead. Al Jazeera describes the “red mirage”: because Republicans have historically voted less by mail, early tallies can favour them before mail ballots narrow or reverse their leads. A slow count or a change of leader “does not, by itself, indicate electoral fraud”, the outlet stresses.
What changes if Democrats win?
A Democratic House would take over every committee chair, with the power to open investigations and subpoena witnesses, France 24 explains. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has signalled he would seek proceedings against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, according to the Associated Press, cited by France 24. The House also controls spending bills, which would give Democrats leverage, including the threat of a government shutdown.
“There will definitely be investigations,” Todd Belt told Al Jazeera, while adding: “There will not likely be another impeachment because Democrats tried that twice and Republicans rallied behind Trump.” A Democratic Senate could also block Trump’s nominees, from judges to cabinet members. Even with both chambers, Democrats could not override a presidential veto without a two-thirds majority.
Trump has urged voters to keep Republicans in charge. “If you elect a Republican House and a Republican Senate on Nov. 3, we will continue to put America first every single day,” he said on the campaign trail, as quoted by Fox News.
